Models Show Hurricane Dean Moving Toward Yucatan

ORLANDO, Fla. -- The latest projected path of movement for Hurricane Dean jogged the system farther south away from Florida and toward the Yucatan as it grows into a massive Category 4 storm.

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"It is going to be a huge, huge dangerous and violent storm before it is over," Local 6 meteorologist Tom Sorrells said.

The system gained strength Thursday and was expected to continue to grow into a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 120 mph by Monday. It should be located just south of Cuba.

"Once it hits that Lesser Antilles and the deep Caribbean, it really hits the warm water," Sorrells said. "It is the warmest water on the planet. It is waiting on it to feed on and grow as it approaches Mexico."

Once Hurricane Dean moves near the Caribbean, an area of high pressure over the United States will likely play a large role in its path.

"If the high pressure is weak, then scenario one will play out and the storm would turn north," Local 6 meteorologist Larry Mowry said. "That's worst-case scenario for us here in Florida. Scenerio two is that the high holds steady and the system moves into the Gulf and scenario three is that the high gets stronger and pushes Hurricane Dean toward the Yucatan Peninsula."

It appears scenario two or three are most likely to happen early next week, Mowry said.

Thursday, Dean was centered about 485 miles east of Barbados and about 590 miles east of Martinique, according to the National Hurricane Center. It was moving west near 24 mph, and was expected to continue the same path for the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Erin Targets Texas

Some vacationers packed up while others vowed to wait out Tropical Storm Erin and its torrential rainfall as it headed for flood-weary Texas early Thursday.

Erin was not expected to gain hurricane strength before making landfall Thursday morning, which was why some said they wouldn't abandon long-planned trips to the coast.

"It's not a hurricane. I ain't worried. If they say don't evacuate, I'm not going to worry about it," said Matt Sandlin of Amarillo, who was on a beach near Corpus Christi with his family on Wednesday as the wind whipped up and the horizon darkened with clouds. "Unless I see a shark or whale go flying by, I'm good."

Gov. Rick Perry ordered emergency vehicles and personnel, including National Guard troops, to the Harlingen and Corpus Christi areas.

"Because storms have saturated much of our state this summer, many communities in this storm's projected path are at high risk of dangerous flash flooding," Perry said in a statement.

Cameron County Judge Carlos Cascos, the top elected official for the state's southernmost county, urged residents to evacuate trailers and mobile homes on South Padre Island.

Corpus Christi hadn't asked for any evacuations, said Ted Nelson, a city spokesman, and was keeping only a handful of people at the emergency operations center overnight.

"We're just advising folks to review their own personal emergency plans and look around your yard and remove any loose items," he said.

Nelson said that with 3 1/2 months left in the Atlantic hurricane season, the incoming storm was "a nice little wake-up call" for people to make sure they are prepared for more severe weather.

Some weren't taking any chances.

"We came out to get as much beach time in as possible," said John Cullison of the Dallas area, who was vacationing with his family and planned to leave southern Texas Thursday instead of Friday. "After the hurricanes from a few years ago, you have to take it kind of serious."

Erin formed late Tuesday as the fifth depression of the Atlantic hurricane season and was upgraded to a tropical storm Wednesday when its maximum sustained speed hit 40 mph. The threshold for tropical storm status is 39 mph.

At 2 a.m. EDT, the storm was centered about 110 miles southeast of Corpus Christi and about 215 miles south-southwest of Galveston, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Its top wind speed remained at 40 mph.

Erin was moving toward the west-northwest at around 12 mph and was expected to continue following that track for at least 24 hours. Its center was expected to be very near the Texas coast on Thursday morning, the hurricane center said.

Erin was likely too close to land to gain enough wind speed to become a hurricane, with sustained wind of at least 74 mph, said National Weather Service forecaster Tony Abbott in Brownsville. But the center said late Wednesday it could strengthen slightly before landfall.

Isolated tornadoes were possible along the middle Texas Gulf Coast on Thursday, the center said.

Watch Local 6 News for more on this story.