Tropical Storm Dean Forms

ORLANDO, Fla. -- Computer models of the projected path of Tropical Storm Dean are pushing the system north as it approaches the United States at the beginning of next week.

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MAPS: Storm Tracker
EXTRA: Advisory | Hurricane 101 | Tracks

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"What I think is likely to happen is that we have an area of high pressure in the Atlantic and an area of high pressure sitting over the United States and between those areas of high pressure there is a little weakness called a trough of low pressure," Local 6 meteorologist Larry Mowry said. "What is expected to happen is this forecasted hurricane will be picked by the trough and lifted northward."

Mowry said there are three scenarios to watch with the tropical storm.

First, the storm could make a turn to the north and stay away from a U.S. landfall. The second scenario is that the system misses a trough of low pressure and moves toward Florida. And, the third scenario is that it moves into the Caribbean.

"All of these things could happen," Mowry said.

If the storm comes to Florida, it would not happen until the beginning of next week, forecasters said.

At 5 p.m. EDT, the storm was centered about 1,390 miles east of the Lesser Antilles in the Caribbean. It had top sustained winds of 40 mph, just above the threshold to be a named storm.

The storm was moving over increasingly warmer waters, where atmospheric conditions could create a favorable environment for intensification, according to hurricane center forecasters.

Its maximum sustained wind speed was about 35 mph, forecasters said. It would be named Tropical Storm Dean if its sustained wind strengthens to at least 39 mph, the threshold for a named storm.

Hurricane forecasters expect this year's hurricane season to be busier than average. Last week, they said up to 16 tropical storms are likely to form, with nine strengthening into hurricanes.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, but August typically marks the start of the most active period.

Ten tropical storms developed in the Atlantic last year, but only two made landfall in the United States.

Watch Local 6 News for more on this story.